The Hypothesis

The guiding light to a good experiment is the hypothesis. It is the second step to setting up an experiment, right after establishing your risky assumption. If you can't articulate a hypothesis, then you don't have an experiment.

The most straightforward and clear way to write a hypothesis is the if / then format. Let's break it down.

The "If"

The if is an isolated change in the application that will lead to a desired behavior or outcome and should be coupled with your assumption. It can be as simple as better feedback, or as complex as adding a feature. I try to write these as solutions. From there, you should be able to infer the desire or needs of the user - or better yet, a problem they are facing.

Good examples:

Bad examples:

The "Then"

The then is focused on our desired behavior or outcome and should be measurable. Avoid desired outcomes that deal with emotion. Although you could measure how happy a person is, it is generally difficult to rely on.

Good examples:

Bad examples:

Summary

A well written hypothesis should help you understand from a high level how you are going to add value to the user, and how adding that value is going to result in a desired and measurable outcome.